၁။ KNU နဲ႔ RCSS ဘာေၾကာင့္ Peace Process က ထြက္သြားလဲ?
အေျခခံအေၾကာင္းရင္း (၂) ခ်က္ရွိတယ္။
ပထမအခ်က္က တပ္ခ်ဳပ္က ေရႊစံအိမ္ မိန္႔ခြန္းမွာ ေျပာထားတာရွိတယ္။ ၂၀၂၀ မွာ ၿငိမ္းခ်မ္းေရးလုပ္ငန္းစဥ္ေတြ ၿပီးျပတ္ေအာင္လုပ္ဖို႔ သႏၷိဌာန္ ခ်ထားတယ္။ အဲ့ဒီ သႏၷိဌာန္အတုိင္းပဲ ျဖစ္ေျမာက္ေအာင္ ေဆာင္ရြက္ၿပီး တုိင္းရင္း သားျပည္သူလူထုေတြ လိုလားေတာင့္တေနတဲ့ ထာဝရၿငိမ္းခ်မ္းေရးကို ျပည္သူ႔လက္၀ယ္ အေရာက္ အပ္ႏွင္းမယ္ ဆိုၿပီး ေျပာထားတယ္။
အဲဒီေတာ့ ၂၀၂၀ မတိုင္ခင္ တပ္ဖက္က ဘာေတြ အတင္းတြန္းမလဲ၊ ဘာေတြဖိအားေပးမလဲ?
ျဖစ္ႏုိင္တာက တစ္ခုတည္းေသာ တပ္မေတာ္ဆိုတဲ့ ေခါင္းစဥ္နဲ႔ DDR လုပ္လာမလားဆိုၿပီး လန္႔သြား ေၾကာက္သြား ပံုရတယ္။
ေနာက္ ဒုတိယအခ်က္က တုိင္းရင္းသားေတာ္လွန္ေရးလက္နက္ကုိင္အဖြဲ႔ေတြရဲ႕ ‘လက္နက္ကိုင္၊ ၿငိမ္းခ်မ္းေရးလုပ္၊ ႏိုင္ငံေရးေဆြးေႏြး၊ စီးပြားေရးလုပ္၊ ႏိုင္ငံတကာ အကူအညီယူ’ ဆိုတဲ့ ေရႊေရာင္ေန႔ရက္ေတြ ကုန္ဆုံးခ်ိန္ နီးလာၿပီလားဆိုျပီး သို႔ေလာသို႔ေလာ ထင္ျမင္ခ်က္ေတြနဲ႔ စိုးရိမ္မႈေတြ၊ မယံုၾကည္မႈေတြ ျဖစ္လာတယ္။
အဲဒါေတြေၾကာင့္ သူတို႔ ဆုံးျဖတ္ရေတာ့မယ္။ ေရွ႕ဆက္မလား၊ ရပ္မလား၊ အခ်ိန္ဆြဲမလား?
ေရွ႕မေလွ်ာက္ေတာ့ဘဲ ခဏေဘးထြက္ၿပီး အခ်ိန္ဆြဲမယ့္ ဗ်ဴဟာကို သံုးေနပံုရတယ္။ အေၾကာင္းျပခ်က္ေတြက အျဖဴေတြ သင္ေပးထားတဲ့ Common Vision, Shared Value ဆိုတာေတြပဲ။
၂။ KNU ထဲမွာ အသံတိတ္ အာဏာသိမ္းလိုက္ၿပီ။
ဘယ္သူေတြ အသိမ္းခံလိုက္ရတာလဲ?
ဥကၠဌ မူတူးေစးဖိုးနဲ႔ ဒုဥကၠဌ ပဒိုေစာကြယ္ထူး၀င္း
ဘယ္သူေတြက သိမ္းလိုက္တာလဲ?
ေစာထူးထူးေလး၊ တာဒိုမူး၊ တာမူးလာနဲ႔ ေဘာေက်ာ္ဟဲ အုပ္စု။
အရင္က ေစာထူးထူးေလး၊ တာဒိုမူး၊ တာမူးလာ အုပ္စုက ေနာ္စီဖိုးရာစိန္ အုပ္စုကို ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲမွာ ပထုတ္ လုိက္တယ္။ အခု ဒီ (၂)စု ေပါင္းၿပီး ျပန္္ေပါင္းထုတ္ေနၿပီ။
ဘာျဖစ္လုိ႔ ေပါင္းႏုိင္သြားလဲ?
ေနာက္ကြယ္မွာ ဟန္ေညာင္ေ၀ (EBO) ရွိတယ္ေလ။ သူ႔က ႀကိဳးကုိင္ေနတာ။ အားလံုးသိတဲ့အတုိင္း ဟန္ေညာင္ေ၀ ဆိုတာ ဘဂၤလီအေရး ေလာ္ဘီ အႀကီးအက်ယ္လုပ္ေနတဲ့သူေလ။ အခု သူ႔ကို အလွဴရွင္ေတြက သိပ္မေပးၾကေတာ့ ညစ္တြန္းတြန္းၿပီး ၿငိမ္းခ်မ္းေရးဘက္လွည့္၊ အခ်ိဳအေခ်ာင္ တိုက္ကြက္ေတြေဖာ္၊ KNU ကို အသံုးခ်၊ ေခါင္းမာေတြကို စည္းရံုးၿပီး ဒီကစားကြက္ကို ေဖာ္ခဲ့တာပဲ။ ထူးထူးေလးဆိုတာ ဟန္ေညာင္ေ၀ ေပးစာကမ္းစာ စားေနရတဲ့သူ။ တာဒိုမူးဆိုတာ ထူးထူးေလးရဲ႕ လက္ေ၀ခံ တပည့္အရင္း။ တာဒိုမူးက ကရင္ႏိုင္ငံေရးမွာ ဘာအစဥ္အလာမွ မရွိ။ CSO နဲ႔ ဒုကၡသည္ေတြကို ထမင္းအိုး လုပ္စားလာၿပီး သူတို႔မဲနဲ႔ အတြင္းေရးမွဴးခ်ဳပ္ ျဖစ္လာတာ။ ႏိုင္ငံေရးမသိ၊ စစ္ေရးလည္း နားမလည္၊ သူသိတာက သူ႔ဆရာႀကီးေတြ သင္ေပးသမွ် ကစားကြက္နဲ႔ လူမ်ိဳးေရးလိုလို၊ ႏိုင္ငံခ်စ္သလိုလိုနဲ႔ တကယ္က သူ႔အတြက္ အာဏာရရွိေရးပဲ ျဖစ္တယ္။ အကုန္လုံးကို နင္းတက္ၿပီး ေဘာေက်ာ္ဟဲကို မဟာမိတ္လုပ္၊ မူတူးနဲ႔ ကြယ္ထူးကို ျဖဳတ္ခ်ၿပီး အာဏာ သိမ္းလုိက္ၿပီ။
၃။ RCSS ဘယ္လဲ?
RCSS က ေရႊစံအိမ္ပြဲ မလာခင္ကတည္းက KNU နဲ႔ ေပါင္းျပီး ဗ်ဴဟာေတြထုတ္္၊ ဥာဏ္နီဥာဏ္နက္ေတြ ဆင္၊ အရင္က သွ်မ္းမူကို ျပန္အသက္သြင္းေနခ်င္တဲ့ပံုပဲ။ အခုထိ အစိုးရနဲ႔ တိုင္းရင္းသား လက္နက္ကုိင္ေတြ ညႇိမရေသးတဲ့ ခြဲမထြက္ရကိစၥကို အေၾကာင္းျပခ်က္ မ်ိဳးစံုနဲ႔ ကေန႔အထိ ညႇိမရေသးဘူး။ ဟိုတေန႔ကလည္း သူတို႔ ထုတ္တဲ့ ေၾကညာခ်က္မွာ NCA မွာ ခြဲမထြက္ရ မပါလို႔ဆိုျပီး ေျပာေနတယ္။ ေဘးလြယ္အိတ္လုပ္လိုက္၊ ဂဏန္းလို ကန္႔လန္႔ တိုက္လိုက္နဲ႔ သူတို႔ သြားေနတဲ့လမ္းေၾကာင္း၊ လုပ္ေနတဲ႔ လုပ္ရပ္ေတြက သူတို႔ အက်ိဳးအတြက္ပဲ လုပ္ေနတယ္ ဆိုတာကို ျပည္သူေတြ အသိဆံုးပါပဲ။ ၿငိမ္းခ်မ္းေရး မရမွ၊ လက္နက္ ကိုင္ထားမွ သူ႔တို႔ ၾသဇာ သူတို႔ေဒသမွာ သက္ေရာက္မယ္လို႔ ယူဆတုန္းပဲ။ အခုထိ ဗိုလ္ေအာင္ဒင္လို ေသနတ္ဗိုလ္လုပ္ခ်င္တုန္း။ အနာရွိ စပ္ၾက။
၄။ ေရွ႕ဆက္ဘာေတြျဖစ္လာမလဲ?
ကရင္ျပည္နယ္မွာ စစ္ပြဲေတြ ျပန္ျဖစ္မယ္။ ျပန္ျဖစ္ရင္ NLD အစိုးရနဲ႔ စစ္တပ္ နာမည္ပ်က္မယ္။ သွ်မ္းဘက္မွာလည္း တိုက္ပြဲေတြ ျဖစ္လာမယ္။ အစိုးရနဲ႔ တပ္အေပၚ ႏိုင္ငံတကာ စြပ္စြဲမႈ၊ ဖိအားေပးမႈေတြ ျမင့္လာမယ္။ ဒါသူတို႔အကြက္။ ျမန္မာျပည္ မၿငိမ္းခ်မ္းရင္ ဘယ္သူေတြ အက်ဳိးရွိမလဲ။ ဟန္ေညာင္ေ၀၊ ထူးထူးေလးနဲ႔ တာဒိုမူးတုိ႔က ကရင့္ အာဇာနည္ႀကီးေတြ၊ သူရဲေကာင္းႀကီးေတြ ျဖစ္လာမယ္။ ျပီးရင္ ေမ်ာက္ျပဆန္ေတာင္းအံုးမယ္။ ပိုင္လိုက္ေလျခင္း။
၅။ ေနာက္ဆံုး ဆုံးရႈံးရမွာကေတာ့ အဓိက ကရင္တိုင္းရင္းသား၊ သွ်မ္းတိုင္းရင္းသား ျပည္သူေတြပဲေလ။ တုိင္းျပည္ မၿငိမ္းခ်မ္းလို႔ ဆယ္စုနွစ္ မ်ားစြာ ႀကိတ္မွိတ္ခံေနရတဲ့ တိုင္းရင္းသားျပည္သူေတြ အခုလည္း ဒီပုတ္ထဲက ဒီပဲ ဘာမွမထူးျခားနား၊ တုိင္းျပည္ နာလိုက္ေလျခင္း။ ျမန္မာျပည္ရဲ႕ ၿငိမ္းခ်မ္းေရး ေလာက္ေကာင္ေတြ တိုင္းျပည္ကို ကိုင္လႈပ္ေတာ့မယ္။ ျပည္သူမ်ား သတိရွိၾကကုန္ေလာ့။
Credit - Soe Naing
#YawMinGyi #ႏုိင္ငံေရးက႑ #ၿငိမ္းခ်မ္းေရး
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