Introduction
General Elections of 2020 are critical for Myanmar for
several reasons. Apart from being held in extraordinary circumstances of
COVID-19 pandemic and its recovery, these elections are expected to put Myanmar
firmly on the global map of successful democratic transition. While the issues and challenges related to
the peace, national reconciliation and federalism remain the agenda for
political parties and the process of electioneering coming under severe
scrutiny, the overall enthusiasm of political parties and citizens reflect an
optimistic view that Myanmar’s electoral democracy has taken roots in the
society.
It is in this context, capturing the perspective of people
on various issues and themes that they confront through public opinion surveys
would be of immense value in terms of promoting a healthy debate and discussion
among the citizenries.
CDES, a think-tank working on issues of peace and
federalism has undertaken an opinion poll among the citizens during the period
11th Aug to 11th Sept 2020. The survey
was conducted through CDES Facebook page by using a free online survey form. A
total of 15 questions were posed and only Myanmar citizens over the age of 18
years were asked to fill the questionnaire.
A total of 1,144 respondents from across the country have provided
opinions through the survey.
Findings
Broad
profile of the respondents reflects that about a quarter are from Yangon city
and the rest are spread across the states and regions. The response rates broadly indicate the
population as well as the penetration of internet and digital access among the
communities. Larger states and regions like Kachin, Shan, Ayerawaddy, Bago,
Magwe have response rate of over 6%.
Overwhelming
response from females (80%) reflects an interesting dynamic which can be
explained through a speculation that there is an overwhelming reliance of women
on smart phone and Facebook for seeking information related to contemporary
issues. This in fact belies the
perception of the digital divide in many developing countries wherein women
have less access to internet and smart phone compared to men. The age profile
also reflects a standard normal curve with more politically active citizens
being of the age group of 30-45. While
this opinion survey may not reflect the voting preferences, it reflects the
fact that women’s participation in the political arena as voters is to be taken
note by the political parties as well as analysts. Future leadership is
expected to emerge from women in due course, if this trend of political
consciousness continues.
Respondents
have provided wide range of opinions on various political issues that are part
of the discourse in the current elections.
At
the outset, it is to be noted that about 75% of respondents have exercised
their voting right in 2015 elections and over 94% have expressed their desire
to vote in 2020 elections too. This would mean that the respondents are
politically (in terms of voting) active and aware of the procedures of
electioneering. Their overwhelming view
(75% respondents) is that the forthcoming elections are going to be free and
fair.
Factors
that determine the voting behavior of the citizens range from qualification of
candidates (34%), party policies (30%), leadership (19%) and allegiance to the
party (13%). This range reflects the
political consciousness of the citizens which is moving towards more
qualitative dimensions that would elevate the democratic quality in terms of
moving towards more value based politics with clean image of candidates and
party policies becoming more determining factors compared to mere affiliation
to a political party. This in fact puts
pressure on political parties to conduct their affairs in a much more
transparent and accountable manner to win the trust of the voters.
Transcending
gender norms is also a factor that reflected in the opinion poll. Over 76%
respondents do not see gender of the candidate as a determining factor although
political leadership in the country is predominantly male dominated (except for
the supreme leader of NLD). In fact, the proportion of women as candidates has
also not seen appreciable improvement.
This opinion could be due to the fact that over 80% of the respondents
are women.
While
question on the prospects of political parties in terms of leading the next
government is a value loaded, about 62% expect the next government would be led
by the NLD. Response of about 34% that they are not certain or clear on the
contours of future government also reflects the dynamic understanding of the
electoral arithmetic by the respondents. The prospects of NLD aligning with
ethnic parties in the formation of the next government is a possibility,
expressed by about 40% of the respondents.
About
34% respondents were not able to express a clear view on nomination for the
next president from either of the parliament houses, though about 49% expected
the candidate nominated by the Pyithu Hluttaw would get the chance of becoming
president.
In
a multiple response scenario, peace (54%), constitutional amendment
(50.8%), enforcement of rule of law
(36.6%), economic issues (28%), education and health (21%) formed the core of
the expected future agenda of the incoming government. An overwhelming majority of respondents have
expressed their support to the government (74.6%) and about 47.4% have
expressed that elections of 2020 would have effect on the ongoing peace process
in the coming years. A more peace focused regime is expected by majority of the
respondents (72.6%) and close to 98% have expressed the view that political
parties would join the peace process. Views of political parties including
ethnic parties are sought to be part of the peace process. Facilitation and development of framework for
political dialogue is seen as an important agenda according to many respondents
with over 62.8% in the coming years to foster peace. For about 23% the current
NCA path is also a workable instrument.
Conclusion
The
findings provide a very insightful perspectives of the citizens. It can be surmised that Myanmar citizens are
aware and agile in terms of sharing their views and opinions on elections and
there is an overwhelming positive environment about various contemporary issues.
While
these findings are in no way representative of the views of the citizens as
they walk into election booth, they reflect the fact that electoral democratic
practice in Myanmar is getting traction with people’s aspirations and
expectations and it is contingent upon the political parties to take cues from
these and develop their agenda of governance and seek the mandate from the
people.
Thank
you.
Centre
for Development and Ethnic Studies (CDES)