The
Union Peace Conference - the 21st century Panglong - is supposed to
be held every six month according to the agreed framework for political
dialogue. It has been already 8 months passed since the last conference was
held in May, 2017. It is still uncertain when the third one can be held. There
are important challenges needed to be resolved first before the next
conference.
One
of the main reasons that impedes the holding of the 3rd Union Peace
Conference has to do with disagreement over issue of the national-level
dialogue, especially the Shan national dialogue. In November, 2017, the Joint
Implementation Coordination Meeting (JICM), the highest decision-making body
for peace process, mandated the holding of the Shan national dialogue at Larng
Khur Town, Shan State. The collective leaderships of the Shan under the
leadership of RCSS undertook the preparations necessary for the implementation
of their national dialogue starting with public consultations at many townships
across Shan State. However, the organizing of public consultations in some Shan
townships were interrupted and blocked by the security forces. This prohibition
of the public consultations prompted the Restoration Council of Shan State
(RCSS) to halt their preparations for Shan national dialogue. On January 8,
2018, RCSS issued a statement announcing their decision to temporarily postpone
their national dialogue, which was originally scheduled for 12-14 January,
2018. Still, no progress is made as to when the Shan national dialogue actually
will be held.
As a
matter of fact, the convening of the 3rd Union peace conference is
conditioned on whether RCSS can organize the Shan national-level dialogue.
Peace Process Steering Team (PPST), the top decision-making body, for 8 ethnic
armed organizations (EAOs) that signed NCA – known as NCA-S EAOs- convened its
meeting on 11-12 January, in Chiangmai, Thailand. PPST reviewed all challenges
and obstacles including the Shan national level dialogue. The leaderships of
PPST concluded that the holding of a Shan national dialogue is compulsory
before convening the 3rd Union Peace Conference. The first point of
their four-point public statement clearly spelled out their common position
saying, “The 3rd Union Peace Conference (21st century
Panglong) shall be convened only after carrying out series of political dialogue
related undertakings.” Strict interpretation of the PPST`s firm position here
is that they would not convene the 3rd Union Peace Conference
without holding the Shan national dialogue first.
In
order to raise the shared concerns of NCA-S EAOs for the current peace process
and to discuss their willingness to hammer out a common approach to break any
potential impasse facing the ongoing peace process, PPST proposed a high-level
meeting with the concerned parties, the Commander-in-Chief Senior General Min
Aung Hlaing in particular. This top-level meeting with the Commander-in-Chief
would be led by General Mutu Say Poe, Chairman of PPST and KNU. The exact date
and time for this top-level meeting is still under discussion.
As it
stands, the fate of the anticipated 3rd Union Peace Conference (21st
Century Panglong) seems to be dependent fully on the outcome of this planned
top-level meeting.